Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 25

Benfica–Nacional

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'BenficaZ. Amdouni (assist: Samuel Dahl)
23'BenficaO. Kökçü (penalty)
90+2'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		Nacional
18	Shots	12
12	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	9
5	Corners	3
5	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
466	Passes	372
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 2.33 · Nacional 0.55. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Benfica 18 · Nacional 12; on target 12 and 3.
Benfica kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

André Narciso→

5.27

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.8%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.68 for Benfica, 0.72 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 93.7% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 829 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win79.8%

Draw13.8%

Nacional to win6.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,095 of 4,439 predictions were correct (47.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Benfica win or draw93.7%

12 — any result other than a draw86.2%

X2 — draw or Nacional win20.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Benfica lead at half-time55.1%

Level at half-time35.4%

Nacional lead at half-time9.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Benfica ahead or level90.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead44.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 829 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Benfica: at least 12Actual: 11
Nacional: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Benfica: at least 8Actual: 5
Nacional: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score2.33

Attack: Benfica score 71% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score0.55

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%3–011.2%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 829 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 24 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.