Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 24

Farense–AVS

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Lúis, Faro

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+6'AVSZé Luís (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Farense		AVS
17	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
330	Passes	437
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Farense 1.31 · AVS 1.11. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Farense 17 · AVS 6; on target 4 and 3.
AVS kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

David Silva→

5.11

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Farense to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Farense, 0.95 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Farense win or draw).
These values were computed from 824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Farense to win42.3%

Draw30.7%

AVS to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

24	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Farense lead at half-time42.9%

Level at half-time42.5%

AVS lead at half-time14.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Farense ahead or level85.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or AVS ahead57.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 824 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Farense: at least 13Actual: 24
AVS: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Farense: at least 5Actual: 6
AVS: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Farense score1.31

Attack: Farense score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AVS's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AVS score1.11

Attack: AVS score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Farense's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.1%0–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.