Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 23

Benfica–Boavista

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 February 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'BenficaA. Belotti (assist: Bruma)
51'BoavistaMiguel Reisinho · red card
70'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (assist: K. Akturkoglu)
77'BenficaO. Kökçü (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		Boavista
31	Shots	6
14	Shots on target	2
22	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	11
13	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
73%	Possession	27%
613	Passes	226
553	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 2.71 · Boavista 0.39. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Benfica 31 · Boavista 6; on target 14 and 2.
Benfica kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

José Bessa→

3.58

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.2%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.84 for Benfica, 0.55 for Boavista.
The highest double chance value is 96.2% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 812 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win85.2%

Draw10.9%

Boavista to win3.8%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Benfica lead at half-time66.9%

Level at half-time28.9%

Boavista lead at half-time4.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Benfica ahead or level95.8%

12 — not level at half-time71.1%

X2 — level or Boavista ahead33.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 812 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Benfica: at least 12Actual: 10
Boavista: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Benfica: at least 6Actual: 13
Boavista: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score2.71

Attack: Benfica score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Boavista concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.71 goals.

How many goals Boavista score0.39

Attack: Boavista score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.9%3–013.5%4–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.