Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 22

Vitória SC–SC Braga

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 February 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		SC Braga
16	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
438	Passes	442
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.33 · SC Braga 1.40. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Vitória SC 16 · SC Braga 6; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

João Ferreira→

4.92

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Vitória SC, 1.07 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win42.6%

Draw29.1%

SC Braga to win28.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time46.0%

SC Braga lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or SC Braga ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 808 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 11
SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 7
SC Braga: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.33

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.40

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–011.1%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.