Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 22

Rio Ave–AVS

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 February 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'AVSJohn Mercado (assist: Jaume Grau)
62'Rio AveDemir Ege Tıknaz

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		AVS
16	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
455	Passes	295
371	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 1.45 · AVS 1.11. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Rio Ave 16 · AVS 11; on target 3 and 3.
Rio Ave kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

David Silva→

5.00

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Rio Ave to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Rio Ave, 1.09 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (1X — Rio Ave win or draw).
These values were computed from 806 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win42.9%

Draw28.8%

AVS to win28.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	19

6	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rio Ave lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time39.2%

AVS lead at half-time12.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level87.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or AVS ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 806 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 12Actual: 14
AVS: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 5Actual: 2
AVS: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score1.45

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AVS's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AVS score1.11

Attack: AVS score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–010.8%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.