Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 21

Casa Pia–Estrela

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Casa PiaCassiano (assist: Gaizka Larrazabal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Estrela
15	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
406	Passes	301
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 1.51 · Estrela 0.96. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Casa Pia 15 · Estrela 13; on target 4 and 3.
Casa Pia kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Hélder Malheiro→

5.64

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “Casa Pia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Casa Pia, 0.85 for Estrela.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Casa Pia win or draw).
These values were computed from 799 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win50.4%

Draw28.7%

Estrela to win20.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Casa Pia lead at half-time50.3%

Level at half-time38.4%

Estrela lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Estrela ahead49.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 799 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 14Actual: 17
Estrela: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 5Actual: 5
Estrela: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score1.51

Attack: Casa Pia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estrela's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estrela score0.96

Attack: Estrela score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–014.0%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.