Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 19

SC Braga–Boavista

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 January 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'SC BragaF. Navarro
33'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: Bruma)
69'SC BragaF. Navarro (penalty)
80'BoavistaRodrigo Abascal · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Boavista
15	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
11	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
584	Passes	275
520	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.36 · Boavista 0.72. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots SC Braga 15 · Boavista 9; on target 5 and 3.
SC Braga kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Hélder Malheiro→

5.72

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.8%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.40 for SC Braga, 0.75 for Boavista.
The highest double chance value is 91.5% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 781 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win74.8%

Draw16.7%

Boavista to win8.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

SC Braga lead at half-time53.2%

Level at half-time38.9%

Boavista lead at half-time7.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level92.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Boavista ahead46.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 781 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 13Actual: 12
Boavista: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 11
Boavista: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.36

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Boavista concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.36 goals.

How many goals Boavista score0.72

Attack: Boavista score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.7%2–110.2%3–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.