Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 17

Casa Pia–Famalicao

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 January 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Casa PiaJ. Goulart (assist: Nuno Moreira)
34'FamalicaoÓscar Aranda (assist: Tom Van De Looi)
90'Casa PiaNuno Moreira · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Famalicao
6	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	14
3	Shots inside the box	13
13	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
5	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
437	Passes	362
351	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 1.36 · Famalicao 1.02. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Casa Pia 6 · Famalicao 19; on target 3 and 14.
Casa Pia kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

André Narciso→

5.00

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Casa Pia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Casa Pia, 0.91 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Casa Pia win or draw).
These values were computed from 761 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win45.6%

Draw30.0%

Famalicao to win24.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Casa Pia lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time44.9%

Famalicao lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 761 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 15Actual: 11
Famalicao: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 4Actual: 5
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score1.36

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.02

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–013.5%0–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.