Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 17

Vitória SC–Sporting CP

4–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 3 January 2025 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (assist: Geovany Tcherno Quenda)
7'Vitória SCTiago Silva
14'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (assist: Geovany Tcherno Quenda)
57'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (assist: H. Morita)
69'Vitória SCKaio César (assist: Telmo Arcanjo)
82'Vitória SCJ. Mendes

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Sporting CP
15	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
470	Passes	422
386	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 0.90 · Sporting CP 1.74. On the pitch: 4-4.
Shots Vitória SC 15 · Sporting CP 9; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

João Ferreira→

4.86

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.8%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Vitória SC, 1.62 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (X2 — draw or Sporting CP win).
These values were computed from 756 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win24.6%

Draw26.6%

Sporting CP to win48.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

85'Vitória SCD. Ndembo-Michel (assist: Telmo Arcanjo)

90+5'Sporting CPTrincao (assist: C. Harder)

12	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Vitória SC win or draw51.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Sporting CP win75.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Vitória SC lead at half-time18.3%

Level at half-time40.3%

Sporting CP lead at half-time41.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level58.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Sporting CP ahead81.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 756 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 12
Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 4Actual: 6
Sporting CP: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score0.90

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting CP score1.74

Attack: Sporting CP score 79% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–210.5%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 756 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 84 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.