Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 14

SC Braga–Famalicao

3–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 16 December 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+3'FamalicaoA. El Ouazzani (own goal)
56'FamalicaoG. Sa (assist: Gil Dias)
62'SC BragaRoberto Fernández (assist: R. Horta)
70'FamalicaoGil Dias (assist: G. Sa)
77'SC BragaP. Oliveira (assist: Sikou Niakaté)
90+4'SC BragaR. Horta

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Famalicao
21	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	8
15	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
469	Passes	380
394	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.05 · Famalicao 0.82. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots SC Braga 21 · Famalicao 10; on target 8 and 8.
SC Braga kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Hélder Malheiro→

5.79

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.0%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for SC Braga, 0.86 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 734 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win61.0%

Draw23.5%

Famalicao to win15.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SC Braga lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time44.8%

Famalicao lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 734 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 15Actual: 12
Famalicao: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 10
Famalicao: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.05

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score0.82

Attack: Famalicao score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–011.7%1–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.