Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 11

Casa Pia–Farense

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 November 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'FarenseE. Balde (assist: Darío Poveda)
32'Casa PiaCassiano (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Farense
13	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
485	Passes	278
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 1.50 · Farense 0.99. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Casa Pia 13 · Farense 8; on target 2 and 3.
Casa Pia kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Carlos Macedo→

4.55

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Casa Pia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Casa Pia, 0.91 for Farense.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (1X — Casa Pia win or draw).
These values were computed from 702 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win49.0%

Draw28.6%

Farense to win22.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Casa Pia lead at half-time36.0%

Level at half-time43.6%

Farense lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Farense ahead64.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 702 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 13Actual: 13
Farense: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 5Actual: 4
Farense: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score1.50

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Farense concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Farense score0.99

Attack: Farense score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–013.1%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.