Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 10

Arouca–SC Braga

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 November 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'SC BragaBruma (penalty)
54'SC BragaA. El Ouazzani (assist: A. Horta)
90'AroucaM. Sylla

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arouca		SC Braga
13	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
12	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
513	Passes	327
428	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arouca 1.17 · SC Braga 1.84. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Arouca 13 · SC Braga 16; on target 3 and 3.
Arouca kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Ricardo Baixinho→

6.48

yellows per match

0.48

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.9%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Arouca, 1.77 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (X2 — draw or SC Braga win).
These values were computed from 697 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arouca to win20.1%

Draw25.0%

SC Braga to win54.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,524 of 6,225 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Arouca win or draw45.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or SC Braga win79.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Arouca lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time44.3%

SC Braga lead at half-time30.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Arouca ahead or level69.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or SC Braga ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 697 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arouca: at least 11Actual: 10
SC Braga: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Arouca: at least 4Actual: 12
SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arouca score1.17

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.84

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Arouca concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.84 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–210.8%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 697 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 77 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.