Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 7

Casa Pia–Vitória SC

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 September 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'Casa PiaCassiano (penalty)
49'Vitória SCJ. Goulart (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Vitória SC
12	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	9
0	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
263	Passes	445
180	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 0.99 · Vitória SC 1.26. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Casa Pia 12 · Vitória SC 17; on target 2 and 4.
Vitória SC kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Carlos Macedo→

4.61

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for Casa Pia, 1.36 for Vitória SC.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (X2 — draw or Vitória SC win).
These values were computed from 668 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win22.3%

Draw29.6%

Vitória SC to win48.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Casa Pia lead at half-time20.4%

Level at half-time46.3%

Vitória SC lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Vitória SC ahead79.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 668 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 14Actual: 13
Vitória SC: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 4Actual: 7
Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score0.99

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitória SC score1.26

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–114.2%0–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.