Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Round - 10

Club Brugge KV–Antwerp

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 12%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AntwerpM. Balikwisha (assist: Mahamadou Doumbia)
43'Club Brugge KVC. Tzolis (assist: Ferran Jutglà)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Antwerp
19	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
614	Passes	326
526	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.25 · Antwerp 0.71. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Club Brugge KV 19 · Antwerp 14; on target 5 and 7.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

L. D'hondt→

3.99

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.6%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.98 for Club Brugge KV, 0.78 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 94.4% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 853 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win82.6%

Draw11.8%

Antwerp to win5.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time55.3%

Level at half-time35.6%

Antwerp lead at half-time9.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level90.9%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead44.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 853 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 9Actual: 11
Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 4Actual: 8
Antwerp: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.25

Attack: Club Brugge KV score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score0.71

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.7%2–010.5%3–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.