Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Play-off Group - 10

Dender–KV Mechelen

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw

Goals and red cards

2'KV MechelenB. Antonio (assist: B. Raman)
14'KV MechelenB. Raman · red card
22'DenderF. Ferraro (assist: Bryan Goncalves)
31'KV MechelenS. Welsh (assist: R. Schoofs)
43'DenderN. Rodes

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dender		KV Mechelen
16	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	0
0	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
594	Passes	308
518	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dender 1.23 · KV Mechelen 1.42. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Dender 16 · KV Mechelen 5; on target 6 and 3.
Dender kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

M. Ledda→

1.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “KV Mechelen to win”. Second comes “Dender to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Dender, 1.94 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 853 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dender to win32.0%

Draw23.5%

KV Mechelen to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 127 of 187 predictions were correct (67.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Dender win or draw55.5%

12 — any result other than a draw76.5%

X2 — draw or KV Mechelen win68.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.5%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Dender lead at half-time33.2%

Level at half-time41.8%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Dender ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead66.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 853 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dender: at least 9Actual: 9
KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Dender: at least 4
KV Mechelen: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 473 of 642 predictions were correct (73.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dender score1.23

Attack: Dender score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.42

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dender concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.8%1–29.4%2–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 853 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.