Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Round - 8

Anderlecht–Union St. Gilloise

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lotto Park, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Union St. GilloiseM. Fuseini (assist: F. Ivanović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		Union St. Gilloise
6	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
447	Passes	293
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.16 · Union St. Gilloise 1.27. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Anderlecht 6 · Union St. Gilloise 7; on target 2 and 3.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

W. Smet→

2.80

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Anderlecht, 1.45 for Union St. Gilloise.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (X2 — draw or Union St. Gilloise win).
These values were computed from 847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win26.0%

Draw28.2%

Union St. Gilloise to win45.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Anderlecht lead at half-time18.0%

Level at half-time44.2%

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time37.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Anderlecht ahead or level62.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Union St. Gilloise ahead82.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 847 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anderlecht: at least 9Actual: 12
Union St. Gilloise: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 2
Union St. Gilloise: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.16

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.27

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–111.0%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.