Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 6

Kortrijk–St. Truiden

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

Goals and red cards

5'St. TruidenA. Bertaccini (assist: A. Ferrari)
8'KortrijkA. Kadri
21'KortrijkN. Mehssatou Sepulveda (assist: Jean-Kévin Duverne)
37'St. TruidenL. Lapoussin (assist: J. Fujita)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kortrijk		St. Truiden
18	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
585	Passes	356
480	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kortrijk 1.41 · St. Truiden 1.26. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Kortrijk 18 · St. Truiden 16; on target 6 and 7.
Kortrijk kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

J. Vergoote→

4.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “Kortrijk to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Kortrijk, 1.70 for St. Truiden.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kortrijk to win28.7%

Draw25.6%

St. Truiden to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,894 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kortrijk win or draw54.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.4%

X2 — draw or St. Truiden win71.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Kortrijk lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time42.4%

St. Truiden lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Kortrijk ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or St. Truiden ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 847 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kortrijk: at least 9Actual: 5
St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Kortrijk: at least 5Actual: 3
St. Truiden: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kortrijk score1.41

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals St. Truiden score1.26

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.2%2–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 847 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.