Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 6

Beerschot VA–Cercle Brugge

4–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Olympisch Stadion, Anvers

Goals and red cards

6'Cercle BruggeL. Agyekum (assist: Erick Nunes)
48'Beerschot VAApostolos Konstantopoulos (assist: E. Henderson)
50'Beerschot VAApostolos Konstantopoulos (assist: E. Henderson)
56'Beerschot VALoïc Mbe Soh (penalty)
78'Beerschot VAFaisal Al Ghamdi (penalty)
90+5'Cercle Brugge

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beerschot VA		Cercle Brugge
13	Shots	22
7	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	17
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
447	Passes	227
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beerschot VA 1.28 · Cercle Brugge 1.38. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Beerschot VA 13 · Cercle Brugge 22; on target 7 and 6.
Beerschot VA kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

B. Put→

3.71

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.6%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Beerschot VA, 2.10 for Cercle Brugge.
The highest double chance value is 83.3% (X2 — draw or Cercle Brugge win).
These values were computed from 847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beerschot VA to win16.7%

Draw21.7%

Cercle Brugge to win61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Paris Josua Brunner (assist: Bruninho)

6	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,895 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Beerschot VA win or draw38.4%

12 — any result other than a draw78.3%

X2 — draw or Cercle Brugge win83.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Beerschot VA lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time43.2%

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time35.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Beerschot VA ahead or level64.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Cercle Brugge ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 847 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beerschot VA: at least 10Actual: 6
Cercle Brugge: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Beerschot VA: at least 4Actual: 5
Cercle Brugge: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beerschot VA score1.28

Attack: Beerschot VA score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.38

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beerschot VA concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%1–110.6%0–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 847 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.