Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 5

St. Truiden–Beerschot VA

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stayen, Saint Redon

Goals and red cards

39'St. TruidenA. Bertaccini (assist: Robert-Jan Vanwesemael)
69'St. TruidenA. Bertaccini (assist: L. Patris)
87'Beerschot VAW. Cagro (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Beerschot VA
12	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
440	Passes	510
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.88 · Beerschot VA 0.99. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots St. Truiden 12 · Beerschot VA 5; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

L. Visser→

4.49

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.8%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.53 for St. Truiden, 1.06 for Beerschot VA.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — St. Truiden win or draw).
These values were computed from 847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win69.8%

Draw17.8%

Beerschot VA to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,895 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — St. Truiden win or draw87.5%

12 — any result other than a draw82.2%

X2 — draw or Beerschot VA win30.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

St. Truiden lead at half-time43.4%

Level at half-time40.5%

Beerschot VA lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Beerschot VA ahead56.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 847 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 9Actual: 15
Beerschot VA: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 5Actual: 6
Beerschot VA: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 488 of 666 predictions were correct (73.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.88

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beerschot VA concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beerschot VA score0.99

Attack: Beerschot VA score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%2–08.9%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 847 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.