Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 5

Cercle Brugge–Kortrijk

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

Goals and red cards

11'KortrijkN. Mehssatou Sepulveda
38'KortrijkA. Kadri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		Kortrijk
16	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	2
4	Offsides	4
55%	Possession	45%
313	Passes	270
201	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.75 · Kortrijk 0.89. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Cercle Brugge 16 · Kortrijk 5; on target 4 and 4.
Cercle Brugge kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

L. D'hondt→

3.93

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Cercle Brugge, 0.96 for Kortrijk.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw).
These values were computed from 846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win52.8%

Draw26.4%

Kortrijk to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time38.3%

Level at half-time42.2%

Kortrijk lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Kortrijk ahead61.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 13
Kortrijk: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 5Actual: 7
Kortrijk: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.75

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kortrijk score0.89

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–011.4%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.