Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 4

Beerschot VA–Kortrijk

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 25 April 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Olympisch Stadion, Anvers

Goals and red cards

10'Beerschot VAA. Colassin
40'Beerschot VAM. Al Sahafi (assist: A. Colassin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beerschot VA		Kortrijk
5	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	9
2	Offsides	4
36%	Possession	64%
305	Passes	533
213	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beerschot VA 1.51 · Kortrijk 1.13. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Beerschot VA 5 · Kortrijk 11; on target 2 and 3.
Kortrijk kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.38

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Kortrijk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Beerschot VA, 1.75 for Kortrijk.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (X2 — draw or Kortrijk win).
These values were computed from 841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beerschot VA to win23.4%

Draw25.4%

Kortrijk to win51.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Beerschot VA lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time44.6%

Kortrijk lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Beerschot VA ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Kortrijk ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 841 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beerschot VA: at least 9Actual: 6
Kortrijk: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Beerschot VA: at least 4Actual: 1
Kortrijk: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beerschot VA score1.51

Attack: Beerschot VA score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kortrijk score1.13

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beerschot VA concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–210.7%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.