Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Play-off Group - 4

OH Leuven–Dender

4–4

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Den Dreef Stadium, Heverley

Goals and red cards

3'DenderM. Berte
22'OH LeuvenC. Ikwuemesi (assist: S. Schrijvers)
33'OH LeuvenW. Balikwisha (assist: C. Ikwuemesi)
39'OH LeuvenS. Schrijvers (assist: Óscar Gil)
57'DenderD. Hrnčár
74'DenderA. Scheidler (assist: D. Hrnčár)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Dender
16	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
424	Passes	440
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.50 · Dender 0.93. On the pitch: 4-4.
Shots OH Leuven 16 · Dender 14; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

M. Ledda→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “OH Leuven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for OH Leuven, 1.13 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (1X — OH Leuven win or draw).
These values were computed from 835 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win44.4%

Draw27.9%

Dender to win27.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — OH Leuven win or draw72.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Dender win55.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

OH Leuven lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time43.2%

Dender lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Dender ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 835 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 10Actual: 9
Dender: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 7
Dender: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.50

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dender concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score0.93

Attack: Dender score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.1%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.