Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 3

Kortrijk–Beerschot VA

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

Goals and red cards

17'Beerschot VAE. Henderson (assist: R. van La Parra)
39'KortrijkJean-Kévin Duverne
43'KortrijkNacho Ferri (assist: T. Ambrose)
45'Beerschot VAA. Colassin
82'KortrijkN. Mehssatou Sepulveda (assist: A. Kadri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kortrijk		Beerschot VA
16	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	0
4	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
385	Passes	258
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kortrijk 1.59 · Beerschot VA 1.07. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Kortrijk 16 · Beerschot VA 7; on target 5 and 4.
Kortrijk kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

W. Smet→

2.83

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.1%: “Kortrijk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Kortrijk, 1.00 for Beerschot VA.
The highest double chance value is 82.3% (1X — Kortrijk win or draw).
These values were computed from 832 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kortrijk to win59.1%

Draw23.2%

Beerschot VA to win17.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Kortrijk lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time43.4%

Beerschot VA lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Kortrijk ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Beerschot VA ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 832 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kortrijk: at least 9Actual: 17
Beerschot VA: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Kortrijk: at least 5
Beerschot VA: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kortrijk score1.59

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beerschot VA concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beerschot VA score1.07

Attack: Beerschot VA score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–111.0%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.