Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

Club Brugge KV–Charleroi

4–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Club Brugge KVFerran Jutglà (assist: Ardon Jashari)
34'CharleroiParfait Guiagon (assist: Y. Titraoui)
49'Club Brugge KVM. De Cuyper (assist: H. Vanaken)
63'Club Brugge KVArdon Jashari (assist: Ferran Jutglà)
77'CharleroiI. Mbenza
80'Club Brugge KVR. Vermant

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Charleroi
25	Shots	9
12	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
593	Passes	445
538	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 1.98 · Charleroi 0.81. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Club Brugge KV 25 · Charleroi 9; on target 12 and 4.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

W. Smet→

2.90

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.0%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for Club Brugge KV, 0.81 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 88.2% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 820 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win68.0%

Draw20.2%

Charleroi to win11.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time55.0%

Level at half-time37.1%

Charleroi lead at half-time7.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level92.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead45.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 820 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 8Actual: 8
Charleroi: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 5Actual: 2
Charleroi: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score1.98

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score0.81

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%2–110.8%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.