Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

Anderlecht–Cercle Brugge

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lotto Park, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'AnderlechtL. Vázquez (assist: L. Dendoncker)
87'AnderlechtAdryelson (assist: C. Huerta)
90+6'AnderlechtC. Huerta (assist: M. Ashimeru)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		Cercle Brugge
19	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
490	Passes	316
374	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.71 · Cercle Brugge 0.94. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Anderlecht 19 · Cercle Brugge 17; on target 7 and 5.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

L. D'hondt→

3.81

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Anderlecht, 0.97 for Cercle Brugge.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Anderlecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 820 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win47.2%

Draw28.6%

Cercle Brugge to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Anderlecht lead at half-time44.4%

Level at half-time40.3%

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Anderlecht ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Cercle Brugge ahead55.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 820 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anderlecht: at least 9Actual: 9
Cercle Brugge: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 7
Cercle Brugge: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.71

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cercle Brugge score0.94

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.2%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.