Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

Union St. Gilloise–Standard Liege

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Union St. GilloiseP. David (assist: F. Ivanović)
55'Union St. GilloiseP. David (assist: M. Rasmussen)
59'Standard LiegeA. O'Neill · red card
82'Union St. GilloiseF. Ivanović (assist: H. Teklab)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Standard Liege
9	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
571	Passes	351
491	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 2.00 · Standard Liege 0.67. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 9 · Standard Liege 6; on target 3 and 2.
Union St. Gilloise kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

L. D'hondt→

3.79

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.22 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.74 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 90.5% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 817 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win71.9%

Draw18.5%

Standard Liege to win9.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time46.4%

Level at half-time42.1%

Standard Liege lead at half-time11.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level88.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead53.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 817 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 14
Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 19

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 6Actual: 1
Standard Liege: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score2.00

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score0.67

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.2%1–010.8%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.