Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 28

Beerschot VA–KV Mechelen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Olympisch Stadion, Anvers

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Beerschot VAW. Cagro (assist: E. Henderson)
46'Beerschot VANick Shinton · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beerschot VA		KV Mechelen
14	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	9
1	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
358	Passes	405
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beerschot VA 1.31 · KV Mechelen 1.46. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Beerschot VA 14 · KV Mechelen 12; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

L. D'hondt→

3.75

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “KV Mechelen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Beerschot VA, 1.59 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or KV Mechelen win).
These values were computed from 807 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beerschot VA to win25.7%

Draw26.8%

KV Mechelen to win47.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Beerschot VA lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time43.2%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Beerschot VA ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 807 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beerschot VA: at least 9Actual: 9
KV Mechelen: at least 9Actual: 20

Corners

Beerschot VA: at least 4Actual: 4
KV Mechelen: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beerschot VA score1.31

Attack: Beerschot VA score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.46

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beerschot VA concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.4%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.