Premiership · Scotland · 2nd Phase - 5

Ross County–Motherwell

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Global Energy Stadium, Dingwall

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Ross CountyRonan Hale (assist: A. Wright)
83'MotherwellM. Ebiye (assist: T. Sparrow)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ross County		Motherwell
15	Shots	22
4	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
246	Passes	426
167	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ross County 1.37 · Motherwell 1.33. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Ross County 15 · Motherwell 22; on target 4 and 7.
Motherwell kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

D. Robertson→

3.40

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Ross County to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Ross County, 1.07 for Motherwell.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Ross County win or draw).
These values were computed from 651 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ross County to win52.0%

Draw25.7%

Motherwell to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ross County lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time41.9%

Motherwell lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ross County ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Motherwell ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 651 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ross County: at least 11Actual: 8
Motherwell: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Ross County: at least 5Actual: 5
Motherwell: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ross County score1.37

Attack: Ross County score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Motherwell's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Motherwell score1.33

Attack: Motherwell score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ross County concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.