Premiership · Scotland · 2nd Phase - 5

ST Johnstone–Dundee

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: McDiarmid Park, Perth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'DundeeL. Cameron (assist: S. Murray)
90+6'DundeeL. Cameron (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Johnstone		Dundee
13	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
406	Passes	224
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Johnstone 1.68 · Dundee 1.27. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots ST Johnstone 13 · Dundee 15; on target 1 and 5.
ST Johnstone kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. McLean→

3.34

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Dundee to win”. Second comes “ST Johnstone to win” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for ST Johnstone, 1.62 for Dundee.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 651 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Johnstone to win27.1%

Draw26.5%

Dundee to win46.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

ST Johnstone lead at half-time20.5%

Level at half-time40.2%

Dundee lead at half-time39.4%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Johnstone ahead or level60.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Dundee ahead79.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 651 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Johnstone: at least 9Actual: 10
Dundee: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

ST Johnstone: at least 4Actual: 1
Dundee: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Johnstone score1.68

Attack: ST Johnstone score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dundee concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dundee score1.27

Attack: Dundee score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Johnstone's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.3%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.