Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 33

ST Mirren–Ross County

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Ross CountyRonan Hale
36'ST MirrenC. Boyd-Munce (assist: J. Ayunga)
50'ST MirrenJ. Ayunga
63'Ross CountyJ. White (assist: Z. Ashworth)
86'ST MirrenRoland Idowu (assist: C. McMenamin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Mirren		Ross County
13	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
308	Passes	260
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Mirren 1.82 · Ross County 0.87. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots ST Mirren 13 · Ross County 11; on target 5 and 7.

Referee

C. Scott→

3.07

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.8%: “ST Mirren to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for ST Mirren, 0.75 for Ross County.
The highest double chance value is 85.9% (1X — ST Mirren win or draw).
These values were computed from 619 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Mirren to win61.8%

Draw24.1%

Ross County to win14.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

ST Mirren lead at half-time52.5%

Level at half-time37.2%

Ross County lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Mirren ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Ross County ahead47.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 619 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Mirren: at least 10Actual: 9
Ross County: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

ST Mirren: at least 5Actual: 6
Ross County: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Mirren score1.82

Attack: ST Mirren score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ross County concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ross County score0.87

Attack: Ross County score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.6%2–013.0%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.