Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 30

ST Johnstone–Aberdeen

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: McDiarmid Park, Perth

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Johnstone		Aberdeen
8	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
418	Passes	538
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Johnstone 1.37 · Aberdeen 1.30. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots ST Johnstone 8 · Aberdeen 11; on target 3 and 2.
Aberdeen kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

C. Graham→

5.45

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Aberdeen to win”. Second comes “ST Johnstone to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for ST Johnstone, 1.36 for Aberdeen.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 600 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Johnstone to win31.8%

Draw28.6%

Aberdeen to win39.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

ST Johnstone lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time45.0%

Aberdeen lead at half-time27.3%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Johnstone ahead or level72.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Aberdeen ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 600 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Johnstone: at least 10Actual: 5
Aberdeen: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

ST Johnstone: at least 4Actual: 1
Aberdeen: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Johnstone score1.37

Attack: ST Johnstone score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aberdeen score1.30

Attack: Aberdeen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Johnstone's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.6%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.