Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 27

Dundee Utd–Motherwell

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 February 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park, Dundee

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Dundee UtdS. Dalby (assist: R. Strain)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Motherwell
10	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
334	Passes	373
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.87 · Motherwell 0.96. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Dundee Utd 10 · Motherwell 10; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

C. Graham→

5.62

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.9%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Dundee Utd, 0.93 for Motherwell.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Dundee Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 583 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win55.9%

Draw25.4%

Motherwell to win18.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dundee Utd lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time45.3%

Motherwell lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Motherwell ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 583 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 11Actual: 20
Motherwell: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 5Actual: 2
Motherwell: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.87

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Motherwell concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Motherwell score0.96

Attack: Motherwell score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–011.4%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.