Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 6

IMT Novi Beograd–FK Vozdovac

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 May 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Event Place, Beograd

Goals and red cards

16'FK VozdovacJ. Flemmings (assist: N. Savić)
19'IMT Novi BeogradIrfan Zulfić (assist: V. Kijevcanin)
51'IMT Novi BeogradM. Luković (penalty)
90+5'FK VozdovacAleksa Matić · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		FK Vozdovac
13	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
326	Passes	441
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.60 · FK Vozdovac 1.11. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 13 · FK Vozdovac 11; on target 7 and 2.
FK Vozdovac kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

N. Radaković→

3.52

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.11 for FK Vozdovac.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 532 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win48.2%

Draw26.8%

FK Vozdovac to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	25

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,772 of 6,687 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw74.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.2%

X2 — draw or FK Vozdovac win51.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time44.6%

FK Vozdovac lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or FK Vozdovac ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 532 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 14Actual: 18
FK Vozdovac: at least 13Actual: 25

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 5Actual: 2
FK Vozdovac: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.60

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Vozdovac's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Vozdovac score1.11

Attack: FK Vozdovac score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.4%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 532 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.