Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 5

Javor–FK Vozdovac

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 13 May 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ivanjica, Ivanjica

Goals and red cards

7'JavorTrivante Stewart (assist: Milan Ilić)
25'FK VozdovacJ. Flemmings

Match statistics

Match statistics
Javor		FK Vozdovac
17	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
350	Passes	307
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Javor 1.24 · FK Vozdovac 1.15. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Javor 17 · FK Vozdovac 11; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

S. Ostraćanin→

3.71

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Javor to win”. Second comes “FK Vozdovac to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Javor, 1.15 for FK Vozdovac.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 528 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Javor to win37.4%

Draw29.8%

FK Vozdovac to win32.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	25

1	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Javor win or draw67.2%

12 — any result other than a draw70.2%

X2 — draw or FK Vozdovac win62.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Javor lead at half-time22.3%

Level at half-time44.9%

FK Vozdovac lead at half-time32.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Javor ahead or level67.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or FK Vozdovac ahead77.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 528 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Javor: at least 14Actual: 15
FK Vozdovac: at least 13Actual: 25

Corners

Javor: at least 4Actual: 6
FK Vozdovac: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Javor score1.24

Attack: Javor score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Vozdovac's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Vozdovac score1.15

Attack: FK Vozdovac score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.5%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.