Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Round - 4

Vojvodina–Cukaricki

2–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 8 May 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Karađorđe Stadium, Novi Sad

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'CukarickiB. Nikčević (assist: D. Ivanovic)
43'CukarickiD. Ivanovic (assist: M. CvetkoviÄ)
59'CukarickiI. Miladinović (assist: Nemanja Tošić)
79'VojvodinaD. Zukic (assist: A. Vukanović)
90+5'VojvodinaA. Vukanović (assist: A. Radulović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vojvodina		Cukaricki
12	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
582	Passes	235
496	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vojvodina 1.53 · Cukaricki 1.16. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Vojvodina 12 · Cukaricki 5; on target 4 and 4.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

M. Marković→

3.61

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “Cukaricki to win” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Vojvodina, 1.16 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 522 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vojvodina to win45.3%

Draw27.3%

Cukaricki to win27.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Vojvodina lead at half-time40.5%

Level at half-time39.5%

Cukaricki lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Vojvodina ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead59.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 522 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vojvodina: at least 12Actual: 10
Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 7
Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vojvodina score1.53

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.16

Attack: Cukaricki score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–110.1%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.