Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 4

FK Vozdovac–Železničar Pančevo

2–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Tuesday, 7 May 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Event Place, Beograd

Goals and red cards

13'Železničar PančevoB. Knezevic (assist: E. Pavlov)
35'FK VozdovacJ. Flemmings (assist: M. Nešković)
41'Železničar PančevoM. Mitrovic (own goal)
45+2'Železničar PančevoS. Hajdin (assist: L. Romanić)
77'FK VozdovacJ. Flemmings (assist: V. Miletić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Vozdovac		Železničar Pančevo
18	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	4
58%	Possession	42%
451	Passes	343
375	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Vozdovac 1.70 · Železničar Pančevo 1.09. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots FK Vozdovac 18 · Železničar Pančevo 14; on target 5 and 6.
FK Vozdovac kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Ilić→

3.25

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “FK Vozdovac to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for FK Vozdovac, 1.09 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — FK Vozdovac win or draw).
These values were computed from 520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Vozdovac to win51.2%

Draw25.8%

Železničar Pančevo to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

25	Fouls	24

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

FK Vozdovac lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time40.0%

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Vozdovac ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Železničar Pančevo ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 520 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Vozdovac: at least 14Actual: 25
Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 24

Corners

FK Vozdovac: at least 4Actual: 10
Železničar Pančevo: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Vozdovac score1.70

Attack: FK Vozdovac score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.09

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Vozdovac's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.