Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 3

Radnicki NIS–FK Vozdovac

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 1 May 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski Stadion Čair, Niš

Goals and red cards

32'Radnicki NISB. Yusuf (assist: A. Luković)
60'Radnicki NISS. Vukić

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki NIS		FK Vozdovac
15	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
323	Passes	452
214	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki NIS 1.47 · FK Vozdovac 1.10. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Radnicki NIS 15 · FK Vozdovac 9; on target 4 and 3.
FK Vozdovac kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

N. Simović→

5.04

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Radnicki NIS to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Radnicki NIS, 1.10 for FK Vozdovac.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (1X — Radnicki NIS win or draw).
These values were computed from 516 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki NIS to win45.3%

Draw28.0%

FK Vozdovac to win26.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time44.6%

FK Vozdovac lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki NIS ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or FK Vozdovac ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 516 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki NIS: at least 14Actual: 11
FK Vozdovac: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Radnicki NIS: at least 4Actual: 4
FK Vozdovac: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.47

Attack: Radnicki NIS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Vozdovac's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Vozdovac score1.10

Attack: FK Vozdovac score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.4%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.