1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 34

Radomlje–Rogaška

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'RadomljeI. Krolo
90+4'Rogaškaunknown · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.28 · Rogaška 1.26. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

M. Jug→

4.59

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “Radomlje to win”. Second comes “Rogaška to win” at 35.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Radomlje, 1.26 for Rogaška.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 347 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win36.1%

Draw28.8%

Rogaška to win35.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radomlje lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time43.6%

Rogaška lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Rogaška ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 346 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
Rogaška: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 4
Rogaška: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.28

Attack: Radomlje score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rogaška's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rogaška score1.26

Attack: Rogaška score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radomlje's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.2%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.