1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 33

Rogaška–Koper

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni center Rogaška Slatina, Rogaška Slatina

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'RogaškaP. Mijic
45+1'KoperP. Petrisko
49'RogaškaP. Mijic
54'KoperD. Juric (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rogaška 1.29 · Koper 1.33. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

N. Kajtazović→

5.81

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Koper to win”. Second comes “Rogaška to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Rogaška, 1.33 for Koper.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 342 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rogaška to win34.7%

Draw28.4%

Koper to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–1

Rogaška lead at half-time37.1%

Level at half-time43.9%

Koper lead at half-time19.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Rogaška ahead or level80.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Koper ahead62.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 341 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rogaška: at least 11
Koper: at least 12

Corners

Rogaška: at least 4
Koper: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rogaška score1.29

Attack: Rogaška score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Koper's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Koper score1.33

Attack: Koper score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rogaška's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.1%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.