1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 30

NK Domzale–Rogaška

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 10 April 2024 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'RogaškaThalisson

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 1.65 · Rogaška 1.28. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

M. Matoša→

3.55

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “NK Domzale to win”. Second comes “Rogaška to win” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for NK Domzale, 1.28 for Rogaška.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 324 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win45.5%

Draw26.1%

Rogaška to win28.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — NK Domzale win or draw71.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Rogaška win54.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

NK Domzale lead at half-time21.9%

Level at half-time42.1%

Rogaška lead at half-time36.0%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level64.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Rogaška ahead78.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 323 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NK Domzale: at least 12
Rogaška: at least 11

Corners

NK Domzale: at least 4
Rogaška: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,137 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score1.65

Attack: NK Domzale score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rogaška's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rogaška score1.28

Attack: Rogaška score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.2%1–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.