First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 5

Hebar 1918–Etar Veliko Tarnovo

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik

Goals and red cards

45+3'Etar Veliko TarnovoM. Morán
48'Hebar 1918Joao Cesco
66'Hebar 1918Cheikh Diamanka
85'Hebar 1918A. Kabov

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hebar 1918		Etar Veliko Tarnovo
9	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
2	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
335	Passes	314
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hebar 1918 1.58 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0.78. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Hebar 1918 9 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 9; on target 3 and 3.
Hebar 1918 kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Arsov→

4.83

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Hebar 1918 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Hebar 1918, 0.78 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — Hebar 1918 win or draw).
These values were computed from 507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hebar 1918 to win56.5%

Draw26.6%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win16.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hebar 1918 lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time49.9%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hebar 1918 ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time50.1%

X2 — level or Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 507 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hebar 1918: at least 12Actual: 11
Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Hebar 1918: at least 5Actual: 6
Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hebar 1918 score1.58

Attack: Hebar 1918 score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score0.78

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hebar 1918 concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.4%1–113.3%2–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.