First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 5

Lokomotiv Sofia–Pirin Blagoevgrad

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia

Goals and red cards

82'Lokomotiv SofiaV. Nikolov
90+1'Pirin BlagoevgradHristo Popadiyn · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lokomotiv Sofia		Pirin Blagoevgrad
11	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
520	Passes	329
454	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.16 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.93. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Lokomotiv Sofia 11 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 8; on target 3 and 1.
Lokomotiv Sofia kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

V. Valkov→

4.55

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Lokomotiv Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 0.93 for Pirin Blagoevgrad.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (1X — Lokomotiv Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Sofia to win40.5%

Draw31.7%

Pirin Blagoevgrad to win27.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time45.0%

Pirin Blagoevgrad lead at half-time30.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Sofia ahead or level69.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Pirin Blagoevgrad ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 507 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 12Actual: 14
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 5Actual: 2
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.16

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pirin Blagoevgrad's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pirin Blagoevgrad score0.93

Attack: Pirin Blagoevgrad score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–013.7%0–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.