First League · Bulgaria · Conference League Play-off Group - 5

CSKA 1948–Botev Plovdiv

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 May 2024 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vitosha, Bistrica

Share on X

Goals and red cards

50'Botev PlovdivC. Nwachukwu
80'CSKA 1948N. Piscevic
90+1'CSKA 1948N. Piscevic

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.16 · Botev Plovdiv 0.96. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

I. Andreev→

5.28

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for CSKA 1948, 0.96 for Botev Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 506 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win39.5%

Draw31.5%

Botev Plovdiv to win29.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw71.0%

12 — any result other than a draw68.5%

X2 — draw or Botev Plovdiv win60.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time37.0%

Level at half-time46.3%

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Botev Plovdiv ahead63.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 506 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
Botev Plovdiv: at least 14

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 5
Botev Plovdiv: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.16

Attack: CSKA 1948 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score0.96

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948 concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–013.1%0–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.