First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 4

Etar Veliko Tarnovo–Botev Vratsa

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 May 2024 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ivailo, Veliko Târnovo

Goals and red cards

21'Botev VratsaDiogo Barbosa
44'Etar Veliko TarnovoD. Lutumba-Pitah

Match statistics

Match statistics
Etar Veliko Tarnovo		Botev Vratsa
14	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
429	Passes	332
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.26 · Botev Vratsa 1.14. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Etar Veliko Tarnovo 14 · Botev Vratsa 8; on target 7 and 4.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Trenchev→

5.04

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win”. Second comes “Botev Vratsa to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, 1.14 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 504 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win38.2%

Draw29.7%

Botev Vratsa to win32.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time49.2%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time50.8%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 504 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 11Actual: 9
Botev Vratsa: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 4Actual: 4
Botev Vratsa: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score1.26

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.14

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.6%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.