First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 3

Pirin Blagoevgrad–Etar Veliko Tarnovo

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 May 2024 at 12:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Blagoevgrad

Goals and red cards

4'Pirin BlagoevgradS. Faye (own goal)
62'Etar Veliko TarnovoI. Vasilev
64'Etar Veliko TarnovoJ. Carcela
90+3'Pirin BlagoevgradA. Luzayadio

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pirin Blagoevgrad		Etar Veliko Tarnovo
7	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
366	Passes	459
295	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.24 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0.82. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Pirin Blagoevgrad 7 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 14; on target 4 and 7.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

K. Georgiev→

6.12

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Pirin Blagoevgrad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Pirin Blagoevgrad, 0.82 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Pirin Blagoevgrad win or draw).
These values were computed from 501 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pirin Blagoevgrad to win45.7%

Draw31.2%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win23.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Pirin Blagoevgrad lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time45.4%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Pirin Blagoevgrad ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 501 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 11Actual: 11
Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 4Actual: 2
Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pirin Blagoevgrad score1.24

Attack: Pirin Blagoevgrad score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score0.82

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pirin Blagoevgrad's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.3%1–115.0%0–012.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.