First League · Bulgaria · Championship Round - 1

Cherno More Varna–Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ticha, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Cherno More VarnaV. Panayotov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.36 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.86. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

I. Stoyanov→

5.39

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Cherno More Varna, 0.86 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 497 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win47.9%

Draw29.6%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win22.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw77.5%

12 — any result other than a draw70.4%

X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv win52.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time41.1%

Level at half-time43.4%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time15.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level84.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead58.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 497 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 13
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 11

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 5
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.36

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score0.86

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–014.1%0–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.