First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 30

Botev Vratsa–Etar Veliko Tarnovo

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 19 April 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Vratsa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Etar Veliko TarnovoS. Faye · red card
32'Botev VratsaM. Smolenski
90+4'Botev VratsaJ. Van Rankin (own goal)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.46 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.00. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

G. Kabakov→

5.63

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Botev Vratsa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Botev Vratsa, 1.00 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw).
These values were computed from 487 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win47.2%

Draw28.2%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time51.2%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time48.8%

X2 — level or Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 487 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 14
Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 10

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 6
Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.46

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score1.00

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 51% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–011.6%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.