First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

Etar Veliko Tarnovo–Levski Krumovgrad

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ivailo, Veliko Târnovo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Etar Veliko Tarnovo		Levski Krumovgrad
5	Shots	17
0	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
305	Passes	354
231	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.01 · Levski Krumovgrad 1.56. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Etar Veliko Tarnovo 5 · Levski Krumovgrad 17; on target 0 and 4.

Referee

M. Velikov→

6.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Levski Krumovgrad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, 1.56 for Levski Krumovgrad.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (X2 — draw or Levski Krumovgrad win).
These values were computed from 483 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win23.0%

Draw27.2%

Levski Krumovgrad to win49.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time46.3%

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Levski Krumovgrad ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 483 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 10Actual: 7
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 5Actual: 4
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score1.01

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score1.56

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–111.2%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.