First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

CSKA Sofia–Pirin Blagoevgrad

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 12 April 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vasil Levski, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 2%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Pirin BlagoevgradVitālijs Jagodinskis
26'CSKA SofiaFernando Karanga
79'Pirin BlagoevgradI. Tasev

Match statistics

Match statistics
CSKA Sofia		Pirin Blagoevgrad
26	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
14	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
541	Passes	321
455	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA Sofia 2.42 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.25. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots CSKA Sofia 26 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 9; on target 7 and 6.
CSKA Sofia kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

P. Kuzev→

5.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.7%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.42 for CSKA Sofia, 0.25 for Pirin Blagoevgrad.
The highest double chance value is 98.0% (1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 480 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA Sofia to win86.7%

Draw11.2%

Pirin Blagoevgrad to win2.0%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 269 of 310 predictions were correct (86.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time54.6%

Level at half-time39.6%

Pirin Blagoevgrad lead at half-time5.9%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA Sofia ahead or level94.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Pirin Blagoevgrad ahead45.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 480 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA Sofia: at least 13Actual: 10
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

CSKA Sofia: at least 8Actual: 14
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score2.42

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Pirin Blagoevgrad concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.42 goals.

How many goals Pirin Blagoevgrad score0.25

Attack: Pirin Blagoevgrad score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–021.3%3–017.2%1–016.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.