First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 26

CSKA 1948–Beroe

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 March 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vitosha, Bistrica

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'BeroeFrancisco Politino

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.70 · Beroe 0.68. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

P. Kuzev→

4.71

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for CSKA 1948, 0.68 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 461 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win62.3%

Draw24.5%

Beroe to win13.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time42.4%

Beroe lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 461 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 12
Beroe: at least 12

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 5
Beroe: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.70

Attack: CSKA 1948 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beroe concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score0.68

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948 concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.2%2–013.8%1–112.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.